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Votes Don't Lie: Predicting the May 12, 2025 Philippine Elections

ONE daily proclaimed in its headline that Senator Bong Go’s 27 million votes set a new record for the highest number of votes received by a senatorial candidate during his reelection bid. While this claim might not be factually wrong, it can indeed be considered deceptive.

Elections in the nation – excluding Barangay elections – take place every three years. Between each electoral event, the populace consistently grows. As a result, the overall count of registered voters climbs with each subsequent election. To illustrate, during the 2007 elections, the total number of registered voters barely surpassed 45 million Filipinos, out of which approximately 29.5 million cast their votes. In contrast, for the 2025 elections, nearly 70 million Filipinos were listed as registered voters, with around 57.4 million actually participating at the polling stations.

Senator Go's impressive 27 million votes in 2025 is actually just 47.29 percent of the total votes cast. By comparison, Sen. Loren Legarda got 62.72 percent of the votes in the 2007 elections, or 18.5 million votes. Obviously, 27 million votes is higher than 18 million votes, but in reality, Legarda was chosen by more Filipinos, from the perspective of percentage of the vote.

In other words, if Legarda were campaigning in 2025 and received the same percentage of votes as she did in 2007, which was 62.72%, she would secure over 35 million votes.

The raw vote counts can be deceptive since they increase along with the growing populace of the nation, causing a continuous rise in both registered and genuine voter turnout. This leads to progressively higher tallies for leading candidates across subsequent elections: Bong Go received approximately 27 million votes in 2025; Robinhood Padilla secured around 26.6 million votes in 2022; and Cynthia Villar garnered about 25.3 million votes back in 2019.

The raw vote count is an exaggerated number because of our continuously growing population (along with higher voter registration and participation rates). Instead, a more precise and pertinent measure is the voting percentage.

The massive numbers in the unprocessed votes mislead Filipinos regarding the election outcomes. In my view, expressing the vote percentages would provide everyone with clearer insights into these results, especially when contrasting them with those from earlier elections for an apples-to-apples type of analysis.

For example, Bong Go's performance remains noteworthy when measured as a share of the total votes and contrasted with earlier election outcomes. In 2025, he secured 47.29 percent of the votes for senator. Nonetheless, this figure isn’t enough to place him among the top ten vote recipients in senate races since 1987 based on percentages alone. Despite this, it marks progress from his result in the 2019 elections, where he obtained only 43.68 percent.

Based on the statistics, Bong Go continues to stay relevant and has garnered backing from newer voters as well. Regardless of what Go and his team are implementing, they should maintain their approach since it’s yielding impressive outcomes for him.

A lot of "Kakampinks" are thrilled about the nearly 21 million votes that Senator Bam Aquino received in the 2025 elections. However, this accounts for only 36.57% of the total votes cast, which is down by two percentage points compared to his 38.7% showing in the 2013 elections. Nonetheless, it marks progress since the 2019 election when he secured merely 29.91% of the votes.

This indicates that Bam Aquino’s journey with the electorate has been unpredictable. His team should reflect on their successes in 2013 and 2025, as well as identify their missteps from 2019. In 2013, he aligned himself with the administration, whereas in both 2025 and 2019, he campaigned under the opposition party. Notably, despite being highly vocal against the government in 2019, his stance seemed muted regarding nationwide concerns in 2025. The question remains: what strategy will lead to victory for Bam Aquino? Hopefully, these figures provide valuable insights into this matter.

Senator Ronald Dela Rosa might be elated with securing 20.8 million votes during the 2025 elections; however, this represents just 36.22% of total votes cast, marking a decrease of nearly four percentage points compared to his performance in 2019 when he garnered 40.18%. Both him and his team ought to reflect upon what caused this drop-off, considering that another pro-Rodrigo Duterte supporter, Senator Bong Go, experienced an uptick of two percentage points. The question remains: What strategies did Bong Go employ successfully that were lacking in Dela Rosa’s campaign?

The returning Senator Francis Pangilinan is clearly pleased to be back in the Senate, though his recent figures aren’t particularly impressive. During the 2025 elections, approximately 15.3 million Filipinos cast their ballots for him; however, this represents only 26.75% of total votes, marking his weakest performance yet as a senate contender. His peak came during the 2007 election when he secured an astounding 49.27% of the vote share. Results from earlier runs show similar percentages: 37.23% in 2001 and 35.47% in 2016 were quite comparable. Given these statistics, Pangilinan should avoid becoming overly confident after the 2025 outcome since it remains significantly lower than his most successful campaign year. Indeed, his latest tally amounts to merely half—about 54% —of what he achieved in 2007. It would serve him well to reflect deeply on why he hasn't matched those previous heights across nearly two decades now.

At the lower end of the spectrum, Senator Imee Marcos, who was elected for another term and is also the president’s sister, only just managed to secure a spot in the Senate with 23.26% of the votes in this month's election. She must investigate why her support has dropped since she garnered 33.58% of the votes in 2019. Could it be due to President Bongbong Marcos’ popularity waning as well?

Senator Lito Lapid, who has been reelected, confronts significant inquiries regarding his political prospects following an election where merely 23.35% of voters cast their ballots for him in 2025—the lowest turnout across his four attempts at securing a senate seat. In contrast, his highest voter support came in 2019 with 35.87%, followed by 30.90% in 2004 and 28.9% in 2010. This outcome prompts speculation whether this might mark his final victory in a Senate race.

The person facing perhaps the deepest introspection following the 2025 elections is re-elected Senator Pia Cayetano, whose vote share plummeted significantly from 41.84% in 2019 down to 25.41% in 2025, resulting in a substantial decline of 16.43 percentage points. How come such a large number of your supporters abandoned you, Pia Cayetano?