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With Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan Maintaining their positions within the Senate’s "Magic 12," director-writer Antoinette Jadaone found herself reflecting on the significance of pre-election surveys and how they influence registered voters.
After securing the second and fifth spots, Aquino and Pangilinan are expected to emerge victorious in the senatorial race according to the preliminary, non-official data from the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) at 5:16 PM on Tuesday, May 13.
Aquino received 20,631,471 votes whereas Pangilinan obtained 15,083,787 votes.
This made Jadaone ponder over the influence of pre-election polls, which she mentioned often set expectations for voters beforehand.
"Genuinely curious: Kiko and Bam were pretty behind in the polls, so what changed? Was it all just for psychological preparation?" she tweeted on her X account.
Responding to @jpbpunzalan, Jadaone mentioned in the May survey conducted by Publicus Asia regarding senate preferences, Aquino secured 41% support, placing him just behind incumbent Senator Bong Go, who led with 42%.
People who either shared or commented on Jadaone’s post attributed the inconsistency to "sampling error," whereas some argued that the surveys reflected the opinions of merely "a specific group of individuals."
According to Pulse Asia’s April 2025 pre-election survey, Aquino secured the 12th through 18th positions with 28.6%. Camille Villar and Rodante Marcoleta followed closely behind, receiving 29% and 28.3%, respectively. Pangilinan placed 19th with 19.8% and lacked any "statistical chance" of victory.
In contrast, a Social Weather Stations (SWS) poll conducted in May 2025 placed Aquino and Pangilinan at the 16th and 17th spots, with approval ratings of 23% and 21%, respectively.
The two polling agencies have not officially released a statement addressing the alleged "discrepancies" between the survey outcomes and the real election results. However, Ronald Holmes, who serves as the president of Pulse Asia, mentioned during an interview that they are looking into this matter. ABS-CBN that several elements might have played a role in the circumstances.
He mentioned that one factor was the alleged timeframe difference between the pre-election surveys and the actual polls, during which there were "intensified campaigning efforts" that might have influenced voters' choices.