The College of Cardinals is preparing to lock down in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel to vote for the next pope.
While the papal election is held in complete secrecy, artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots appear to hold their own opinions on who the likely new pontiff will be.
On May 7, approximately 133 cardinal-electors are anticipated to start taking part in the voting process. A significant number of these electors were appointed by the recently deceased Pope Francis, and according to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, this could potentially "shape the course" of the election, as many of them hold newer appointments.
The cardinals will deliberate on identifying the most suitable candidate, whether they should focus on maintaining continuity or driving change, ensuring broad global representation, addressing the waning spirituality in Europe, and finding someone capable of bridging the gap between the conservative and progressive factions within the Church.
We have chosen to seek predictions about the direction of the election from OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Google’s Gemini 1.5, xAI's Grok-2, and DeepSeek.
It is important to recognize that chatbots tend to "hallucinate" — generating incorrect answers — as they develop an ability to identify statistical patterns within the data they have processed. This data primarily originates from publicly accessible online content.
The frontrunner: Pietro Parolin
No white smoke emerged regarding the selection of the next pontiff amongst the major language models, yet it essentially boiled down to a close contest between front-runners Italy’s Pietro Parolin and the Philippines’ Luis Antonio Tagle.
Before responding, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok-2 mentioned that the conclave is renowned for being highly unpredictable and might readily choose a candidate who isn’t included in the list.
Gemini’s 1.5 and Grok-2 referred to Italy’s Parolin as often being mentioned as the leading candidate, due to his significant role within the Catholic Church, where he has served as the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013.
In his capacity, Parolin handled the Vatican’s diplomatic ties with various nations and supervised the management of the Holy See. Essentially, Grok-2 referred to him as the “ deputy pope”.
Parolin has worked as a diplomat across multiple positions, with his assignments having taken him to countries such as Nigeria, Mexico, and Venezuela. In his role as an ambassador, Gemini 1.5 mentioned being part of extremely critical diplomatic scenarios, including initiatives for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.
According to the Vatican, Parolin is recognized as an authority on the Middle East region and is credited with restarting talks between Israelis and Palestinians.
Nevertheless, despite being regarded as a " continuity candidate" for aligning with Pope Francis' vision, Grok-2 points out that Parolin has faced criticism for adopting a more traditional position on matters such as same-sex marriage.
Gemini referred to him as the "highest-ranking cardinal bishop below 80 years old," and therefore, he is anticipated to lead the 2025 conclave.
Grok-2 and Gemini give Parolin the highest odds of winning, at 31 per cent and up to 30 per cent respectively.
The prominent candidate: Luis Tagliarde
ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok-2 also identified Cardinal Tagle from the Philippines as a "strong contender".
The so-called "Asian Francis" as ChatGPT identifies him, Tagle is seen as a progressive, especially on inclusivity for the LGBTQ+ community and divorced Catholics, making him well-placed to continue Pope Francis's legacy.
This "advocacy for social justice" and his international profile make him "a prominent figure in the Church," especially among the cardinals who are looking for more reform, ChatGPT continued.
"As a Filipino, Tagle would symbolize the swiftly expanding Church in Asia and the Global South," ChatGPT noted.
Based on Gemini, Tagle enjoys considerable support from progressive factions within the Church who aim to uphold Pope Francis’s tradition of focusing on the underprivileged and marginalized.
Grok-2 attributes his time as the former Archbishop of Manila as evidence of his leadership abilities.
ChatGPT estimates Tagle's likelihood of victory to be approximately 35 percent; however, this figure might decrease if the cardinals opt against emulating Pope Francis’s approach or choose to support a European pope “for stability,” leading them to back a middle-ground candidate instead.
Grok-2 gave Tagle’s odds at 22 percent, referencing the betting platform Polymarket as its source.
The 'compromise ballots': Jean-Marc Aveline and Pierbattista Pizzaballa
The large language models expressed varied views on whom the conclave might potentially support as a "compromise candidate" if the cardinals fail to reach an agreement.
France's Jean-Marc Aveline, who serves as the Archbishop of Marseille, has been pinpointed as a consensus choice by both Grok-2 and ChatGPT. Inside the Church, Aveline is recognized for his efforts in "interfaith dialogue,” especially concerning interactions with Islam, as stated by Grok-2.
Grok-2 mentioned that Aveline has an edge due to his "low profile" in Vatican politics and his "limited proficiency in Italian." This positioning might make him a suitable choice as a consensus candidate for those seeking a new, pastorally focused leader who doesn’t have strong affiliations with any particular factions.
ChatGPT presented a distinct set of potential nominees compared to those suggested by Grok and Gemini. The individuals ChatGPT proposed were Pierbattista Pizzaballa from Italy, Jean-Claude Hollerich from Luxembourg, Cristóbal López Romero from Spain, and Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Pizzaballa – identified as ChatGPT’s primary compromise choice – shines for the chatbot due to his recent elevation to cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023, indicating "trust" from the former pope.
The present Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem might be regarded as "ideologically centred and globally minded," along with being a figure who attracts those pushing for reforms without ostracizing traditionalists.
The outliers: Mario Grech and Matteo Zuppi
The AIs also mentioned figures whom they deemed to be less likely successors to Pope Francis, including a name that has been floated as one of the top contenders.
Gemini expressed backing for Malta’s Cardinal Mario Grech, the Secretary of the Synod of Bishops, using ambiguous statements such as "he has demonstrated an aptitude for fostering equilibrium within the Church."
Grok-2 backs Italy's Matteo Zuppì, considered by many as a top contender and also a potential middle-ground option since he might appeal to cardinals seeking a non-divisive leader for those advocating reforms.
Hungary’s Cardinal Peter Erdo is seen as a compromising choice according to Grok-2, yet both ChatGPT and Gemini view him as the top pick amongst conservative factions.
Gemini also noted that Parolin was considered both a compromising option and a leading contender. Upon being pressed for details, Gemini explained that should the conclave face divisions, he might still rise as a compromise selection due to his "attributes."
Refusals to answer
Both DeepSeek and Anthropic’s Claude 3.7 Sonnet indicated that Pope Francis remains in his position as pope. The information from these two chatbots was last updated in July 2024 for DeepSeek and October 2024 for Claude 3.7 Sonnet.
When a Euronews Next reporter corrected DeepSeek by mentioning that the Pope passed away in April 2025, DeepSeek responded that it could not perform real-time fact-checking and suggested that we might be presenting a "theoretical situation" or that some confusion had occurred.
As DeepSeek guided Euronews Next through its reasoning process in real-time, it examined the historical aspects of papal elections, analyzed various contributing elements, and considered alterations within the College of Cardinals prior to providing a speculative response.
It was indicated that the subsequent Pope would hinge on the direction taken by the conclave. Should this signify the Church’s expansion into the Global South, then Cardinal Tagle alongside Dieudonné Nzapalainga from the CAR or Congo's Besungu could be considered.
DeepSeek also mentioned several European figures such as Parolin, Christoph Schonborn from Austria, or Jean-Claude Hollerich from Luxembourg, as advocates for change.
From a more traditional perspective, it recommended Robert Sarah from Guinea or Marcello Semeraro from Italy.
When Euronews Next corrected Anthropic, it said that the Church is in a period of "sede vacante" - Latin for "vacant seat" or the time when the papal office is unoccupied - and offered general information about how the conclave works.
It mentioned that it lacks details on who will become the next pope since this "depends on the discussions within the College of Cardinals."