First of three parts
In just a few weeks, the Senate will assemble as an impeachment court to determine the future of Vice President Sara Duterte. Several analysts highlight the significant majority that the Duterte faction garnered in the recent elections and conclude that certain senators might automatically side with her acquittal. However, Philippine political dynamics seldom follow such straightforward paths. Assuming she'll be acquitted merely due to election outcomes represents an oversimplified perspective, overlooking the intricate, fluctuating, and frequently self-serving considerations influencing every senator’s decision-making process.
This isn’t the first instance where a prominent impeachment process has put the Senate’s political strength to the test. About twenty years back, another such dramatic event occurred during the impeachment proceedings against President Joseph “Erap” Estrada. At that time, many senators who supported Estrada voted to prevent critical evidence—infamously known as the ‘second envelope’—from being examined. Senator Teresa "Tessie" Aquino-Oreta, one of Estrada’s supporters, was famously captured on video performing a joyful dance inside the chamber following this decision to suppress the evidence. This earned her the unflattering moniker 'The Dancing Queen.' Public reaction was immediate and harsh. Her exuberant demonstration of allegiance towards a struggling leader deeply upset Filipinos' sentiments and ultimately led to the end of her political journey. Despite issuing an apology, she failed in her attempt at re-election and did not return to politics afterward.
The impeachment drama involving Estrada serves as a warning to present-day senators. It highlights how swiftly and harshly public opinion can shift. Initially, what appeared to be an unshakable support within the Senate for Estrada vanished almost instantly once fury surged onto the streets, leading up to People Power 2. As lawmakers deliberate over Sara Duterte’s situation, they'll likely remember how easily a dominant majority can dissolve due to waves of popular discontent. They’ll also understand that one ill-considered vote or premature celebration could tarnish their political standing indefinitely. To put it simply, the impeachment tribunal isn’t merely about counting votes; it tests integrity under pressure.
The 24 senators tasked with rendering judgment each carry distinct sets of interests and pressures. While one might be inclined to presume that they'll align along lines of patronage or partisanship, such coalitions tend to shift frequently in Philippine politics. Official affiliations do not command significant influence within this framework. Rather, individual senators will weigh potential gains and consider impacts on their upcoming political endeavors. Numerous legislators confront impending bids for reelection or harbor loftier aspirations; thus, each ballot represents an assessment regarding whether exonerating Duterte will secure favor or provoke backlash capable of haunting subsequent electoral cycles. As noted by WR Numero, surveys indicate that half of Filipino respondents prefer the senators' decisions to hinge upon evidence, whereas merely six percent endorse votes influenced by personal or partisan leanings.
Consider Senator Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa as an illustration. Having served as the nation’s top cop under President Rodrigo Duterte and staunchly enforcing Duterte's war on drugs, one might expect him to ardently support the Duterte clan. However, Dela Rosa finds himself ensnared in a complex situation. The International Criminal Court is investigating potential charges of crimes against humanity due to his involvement in the drug crackdown. Given that his erstwhile leader is currently being held at The Hague and further arrest warrants loom ahead, it isn’t entirely inconceivable—though unlikely—that Dela Rosa might shift allegiances away from the Dutertes towards safeguarding his own interests.
It wouldn’t be too speculative to imagine “Bato” contemplating voting to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte as part of this strategic realignment. Such a move could position him favorably both within the new government structure and internationally, potentially averting future legal repercussions for himself. Under the harsh realities of political maneuverings required merely for self-survival, those who once stood guard may quickly switch sides should doing so mean ensuring their continued freedom.
The Cayetano brothers and sisters, Senators Alan Peter and Pia Cayetano, have demonstrated remarkable adaptability within politics. They both originally aligned themselves with the Duterte family’s influence. Notably, Alan Peter once campaigned alongside Rodrigo Duterte as his running mate back in 2016 and later took up the role of foreign secretary under him.
However, at heart, their primary allegiance is towards achieving personal goals. There are whispers about Alan Peter potentially aiming for higher offices like Vice President or even Presidency sometime soon. Presently, he may ponder how defending Sara Duterte can benefit these plans. Should Sara successfully navigate through current challenges and emerge as a leading candidate for president in 2028, Alan might see an advantage in becoming her close confidant—or possibly her running mate again. This scenario suggests that the Cayetanos would likely advocate for Sarah's exoneration to secure potential advantages down the road.
Conversely, should they perceive Sara losing momentum politically, the Cayetanos might quickly change course, abandoning present alliances to pursue new opportunities elsewhere. Ultimately, every vote holds weight based on its capacity to advance one’s individual political journey.
It’s anticipated that the Villar clan will cast their votes considering their extensive business holdings. Senators Mark Villar and Camille Villar, recently elected alongside him, largely built their family's significant wealth in property development and construction through favorable governmental support and regulations. Their primary concern isn’t about political beliefs or allegiance; rather, it revolves around what choice best protects their commercial ventures. During the previous election cycle in 2022, the Villars aligned themselves with both the Marcos and Duterte factions. Last time out, Camille Villar sought endorsements from both Sara Duterte and President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.
As they prepare to evaluate Sara Duterte now, the Villars will meticulously weigh which position offers greater protection for their corporate group. Should finding Sara guilty enhance their relationship with President Marcos Jr.—who wields considerable influence over key sectors—or ensure conditions conducive to their businesses’ success, particularly since Prime Water faces challenges—they might decide against her. Conversely, should letting her off benefit ties with the influential Duterte supporters, then acquittal would also serve their purpose well enough. The Villars typically navigate these waters cautiously, staying neutral till profitability becomes evident.
(Disclaimer: In addition to my position as a professor at UPLB, I also serve as the vice chairman of the board for the government-owned PTV Network, Inc.)