PARIS, France — Over 14 million of the globe’s most at-risk individuals — with one-third being young children — may face death due to cuts made by the Trump government to U.S. international assistance programs, according to projections from recent research released on Tuesday.
A report featured in the renowned medical publication The Lancet has been released just as global and industry figures convene at a United Nations summit taking place in Spain this week, aiming to strengthen support for humanitarian efforts currently under strain.
The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) contributed more than 40 percent of worldwide humanitarian aid before Donald Trump resumed his position at the White House in January.
Two weeks after that, one of Trump’s top advisers at the time — and world’s richest man — Elon Musk bragged about putting the company "through bankruptcy."
The budget reductions "threaten to suddenly stop — and even reversing — Two decades of advancements in health within vulnerable communities have been jeopardized," cautioned Davide Rasella, a researcher from ISGlobal – the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, who was also involved as a co-author in the study.
He stated in a release, "For numerous lower- and moderate-income nations, the impact of this disruption would resemble the magnitude of a worldwide health crisis or a significant military confrontation."
Reviewing data spanning 133 countries, an international group of scientists calculated that assistance provided through USAID helped avoid approximately 91 million fatalities in low- and middle-income nations from 2001 to 2021.
They also utilized modeling to predict the impact of an 83 percent reduction in funding. — The number released by the United States government at the start of this year — could affect death rates.
The projected reductions may result in more than 14 million preventable deaths by 2030. This figure includes over 4.5 million children younger than five years old. — approximately 700,000 child fatalities annually.
READ: Global community feels impact of USAID reductions: List of 20 programs now shut down
To put this into perspective, approximately 10 million military personnel are believed to have died during World War I.
Researchers discovered that programs funded by USAID contributed to a 15% reduction in overall mortality rates. Among children younger than five years old, this decline was significantly greater—reaching up to 32%.
Funding provided by USAID proved highly successful in preventing avoidable deaths caused by diseases.
The study revealed that countries receiving substantial support had 65% fewer deaths caused by HIV/AIDS than nations getting minimal or no assistance from USAID. Similarly, fatalities linked to malaria and neglected tropical illnesses dropped significantly—by about one-half.
‘Time to scale up’
Following the reduction of USAID funding, numerous key international donors such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and France also declared intentions to cut back significantly on their overseas aid spending.
Caterina Monti from ISGlobal warned that these cuts in aid, especially within the European Union, might result in "an increase in preventable deaths over the next few years."
However, the alarming forecasts regarding fatalities relied on the present level of committed assistance and might quickly decrease should circumstances shift, according to the researchers' emphasis.
Several dozen global leaders are gathering this week in Seville, Spain, for the largest international aid summit in ten years. Nevertheless, the United States has decided not to participate.
“This is the moment to expand efforts, not reduce them,” Rasella stated.
Prior to the reduction in its budget, USAID accounted for 0.3% of total U.S. federal expenditures.
"Each day, US citizens donate approximately 17 cents to USAID, which adds up to roughly $64 annually," stated James Macinko, the study's co-author from the University of California, Los Angeles.
I believe many individuals would back ongoing USAID financial backing if they understood how impactful even a modest investment can be in safeguarding countless lives.