RIO DE JANEIRO: Leaders of the BRICS nations will gather in Rio de Janeiro starting this Sunday, though the group appears weakened as Chinese President Xi Jinping does not attend—his first absence from the yearly meeting of developing countries in over a decade.
This bloc – frequently viewed as a China-led response to balance Western influence – convenes at a time when its members are facing looming and expensive trade disputes involving U.S. tariffs.
What was originally envisioned two decades ago as a platform for rapidly developing nations has increasingly become influenced by China, whose growth outpaced and overshadowed the others.
This marks the first time since assuming office as China’s President in 2012 that Xi Jinping will be absent from the summit, though Beijing has yet to explain his non-attendance.
"I anticipate that people will speculate about why Xi was not present," stated Ryan Hass, previously the China director at the U.S. National Security Council and currently affiliated with the Brookings Institution think tank.
The simplest explanation might carry the greatest explanatory weight," stated Hass. "Xi recently welcomed Lula in Beijing.
The Chinese leader won’t be the sole high-profile figure missing from the event. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faces war crimes charges, has also chosen not to attend in person and instead plans to join through a video connection, as stated by the Kremlin.
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian will also be present; his country remains affected by a recent 12-day war with Israel.
Hass noted that Putin's absence and the possibility of India's prime minister being honored as a guest in Brazil might contribute to explaining why Xi did not attend.
"Xi does not wish to seem overshadowed by Modi," he remarked, noting that Modi would be hosted for a state luncheon.
I believe Xi's choice to assign Premier Li (Keat Peng) with attending amid these considerations.
Nevertheless, Xi's absence deals a setback to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who aims for Brazil to have greater influence globally.
By November 2025, Brazil will have held three major global events—a G20 summit, a BRICS summit, and the COP30 international climate conference—before stepping into highly competitive presidential elections scheduled for the following year.
Lula is anticipated to seek another election bid, potentially securing an historic fourth term in power.
‘Cautious tone’
For BRICS leaders making their way to "cidade maravilhosa" — the Marvelous City — economic matters will take center stage on the agenda.
On Friday, Lula supported the proposal to explore alternatives to using the US dollar for international transactions within the BRICS countries.
I understand it’s complex. Political issues are involved," Lula remarked during a BRICS financial gathering. "However, without discovering an alternative approach, we’ll end this century just as we began the last one.
However, with several countries, including China, engaged in challenging trade talks with the US, they might hesitate to upset the unpredictable American president.
Starting this Friday, nations exporting goods to America can expect official notices detailing the tariffs imposed on their shipments, according to President Donald Trump.
He has further warned of implementing 100% tariffs against nations that oppose the global supremacy of the US dollar.
"We expect a summit marked by caution: referring explicitly to the United States in the concluding statement will likely prove challenging," said Marta Fernandez, head of the BRICS Policy Center at Rio de Janeiro's Pontifical Catholic University, speaking to AFP.
She specifically highlighted this point regarding China: "It does not appear to be an appropriate moment to create additional tension" between the globe's top two economic powers.
When it comes to various other matters, such as those concerning the Middle East and climate change, member countries of BRICS must find ways to resolve significant underlying disagreements.
Consensus-building difficult
The original BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India, and China — now include South Africa as well. More lately, they've also welcomed new additions: Saudi Arabia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia into their group.
Experts suggest that this move has enhanced the group's global influence. Together, the BRICS countries now account for almost fifty percent of the world’s population and contribute around forty percent to the global GDP.
However, it has also created numerous new divisions, particularly regarding the extent to which countries should confront the United States.
The expansion "renders achieving a solid agreement increasingly challenging," stated Fernandez.
Oliver Stuenkel, an associate professor of International Relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, stated that BRICS countries refrained from releasing a firm declaration regarding the Iran-Israel crisis and related U.S. airstrikes because of their "varied" priorities.
However, Brazil remains hopeful that nations will adopt a unified position during the summit talks, even when addressing highly delicate topics.
"Throughout their history, BRICS nations have consistently maintained a unified stance on key global matters, and there is every reason to expect they will do so again regarding the current situation in the Middle East," said Brazil's Foreign Minister Mauro Vieita, speaking to AFP.
Discussions about artificial intelligence and reforms in global governance will also feature prominently on the agenda.