Despite the recent conflict, Tehran appears resolute in pursuing its nuclear goals. Initiated with U.S. assistance during the time of the Shah, the nuclear initiative has long served as a demonstration of power. Today, it additionally represents the government's endurance.
Tehran is officially halting its collaboration following the recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, alongside the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
"Until the safety of Iran’s nuclear sites is guaranteed, Tehran will halt collaboration with the IAEA," stated parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf during an appearance on national TV last week, followed by President Masoud Pezeshkian endorsing the decision earlier this Wednesday.
Nevertheless, the exact details of the measure have yet to be clarified.
It remains uncertain what impact it might have on the... IAEA inspectors which stayed in Iran during the entire 12-day war.
The United Nations agency based in Vienna aims to gather additional details about the current status of three key Iranian nuclear sites—located in Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz—that came under attack from the... US-Israeli bombing .
It remains uncertain whether Iran will continue adhering to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)—a key pillar of international disarmament—following attacks on its installations.
“The reality that these sites came under attack despite being protected by IAEA safeguards—and with no indication of their use for weapons development—has reignited discussions within Iran over whether the NPT continues to offer meaningful security benefits,” said Kelsey Davenport, Director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association research group, speaking to Axofa.
Prior to the Israeli attacks on Iraq, the IAAF cautioned that Iran stood out as the sole country not possessing nuclear weapons but still being... Enriching uranium to almost weapon-ready concentrations ...and that it contained sufficient material for multiple nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, at this point, the IAEA emphasized that it lacked "evidence indicating an organized attempt to pursue a nuclear bomb program."
The United States assisted Iran in initiating its nuclear program.
The origins of Tehran's nuclear initiative trace back to the 1950s during the reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, marking a lengthy and intricate historical development.
The U.S.-supported king chose to participate in an effort initiated by U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower called "Atoms for Peace," designed to provide countries—particularly those still developing—with access to peaceful nuclear energy. Iran used this opportunity to begin laying the groundwork for its own nuclear program.
In 1958, Tehran became part of the IAEA, only one year following the establishment of the United Nations organization in Vienna.
Iran viewed its nuclear program as a matter of national pride. The nation aimed to increase its capacity for generating electricity and ultimately achieve self-sufficiency in producing nuclear fuel without relying on external providers, all while decreasing its reliance on oil and natural gas.
Iran joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1970, permitting the peaceful utilization of atomic power under oversight from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
After the revolution
The Islamic Revolution of 1979 plunged Iran into turmoil.
The United States halted its shipments of nuclear fuel to the research reactor located in Tehran. Back in 1980, Iraq launched an attack against Iran with the aim of seizing control over its valuable oil fields, which triggered a prolonged conflict lasting for eight years. As a result, various Western firms—including those based in Germany—chose to discontinue their collaboration with Iran’s nuclear initiative.
During the early years of the 1980s, whispers emerged suggesting that Iraq might be developing a nuclear bomb.
Israel, which viewed the Saddam Hussein government as a greater danger than Iran’s clerical rulers, even went so far as to use intelligence supplied by Iran’s spy agency to carry out an airstrike on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear facility in 1981.
Following the conclusion of the Iran–Iraq War in 1988, Iran began acquiring technological assistance from Pakistan, China, and Russia to advance its uranium enrichment capabilities and establish an independent nuclear fuel program.
The government aimed to demonstrate Iran’s ability to undertake advanced technological initiatives, with its nuclear efforts serving as a representation of national power.
Iranian authorities have consistently acknowledged that Tehran possesses the capability to develop a nuclear weapon should circumstances demand it.
Akbar Etemad, widely regarded as the founder of Iran’s nuclear initiative, held the view that no nation should have authority over another’s approach to nuclear development. He upheld this stance consistently, including following the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
Fereydoun Abbasi, who headed Iran’s nuclear organization before being assassinated in recent Israeli airstrikes, had openly declared that Iran should have the capability to rapidly achieve weapon-grade uranium enrichment when required by state authorities.
Trump clings to an unrealistic expectation of securing a "superior agreement."
In 2003, inspections by the IAEA along with satellite monitoring suggested that Iran might be developing a covert military nuclear initiative.
At the time, Germany’s foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, persuaded his British and French colleagues to begin talks with Iran, seeking to implement tighter oversight of Iran's nuclear activities through collaboration with the IAEA.
Following twelve arduous years of negotiations, the United States, China, Russia, and the trio of European nations reached an agreement. comprehensive nuclear agreement Iran is familiar with the JCPOA.
However, in 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the accord in pursuit of a “more favorable agreement.” In response, Iran slowly abandoned its obligations and resumed high-level uranium enrichment in 2019.
Currently, Iran possesses approximately 400 kilograms (more than 880 pounds) of highly enriched uranium, along with numerous advanced centrifuges utilized for processing the radioactive material.
Iran should view Libya as an instructive example.
Although the United States asserts that Iran's nuclear program has been completely dismantled, numerous specialists caution that Tehran may be capable of reconstructing its nuclear infrastructure.
"Ultimately, there are several critically important issues that have not yet been addressed," said Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control specialist from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California, speaking with U.S.-based radio network NPR.
"Iran is currently highly unwilling to make concessions," stated Iranian-born journalist Mehrdarad Farahmand.
He stated, "Iran views retreating during a time of war as an indication of vulnerability," adding that such a perspective could be the most significant barrier to restarting diplomatic efforts.
According to Kelsey Davenport, when considering the future, Iran’s outlook will probably be influenced by the cases of Libya and North Korea.
“It’s possible that advisers close to the supreme leader may argue Iran requires nuclear arms as a means of protection against potential future attacks,” said the non-proliferation expert.
"Iran observes the case of Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi abandoned his nation’s nuclear arms efforts, rejoined the NPT as a compliant member, and was eventually ousted by forces supported by the West," Davenport said to Axios.
North Korea subsequently withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003. developed its nuclear weapons and the regime—currently led by Kim Jong Un—continues to hold strong control.
The following content was originally written in German and has since been rendered into English.
Author: Shabnam von Hein